2026 Tax Refund Trends: What the OBBBA and New SALT Limits Mean for You

We are a few weeks into the 2026 filing season, and the early numbers coming out of the IRS are telling an interesting story. Across the country, the average tax refund has climbed to $2,476—a roughly 14.2% jump from last year. While that is about $300 more in your pocket, it isn't quite the $1,000 windfall some policymakers predicted. However, keep in mind that it is still early days, and these averages often shift as the season progresses.

This upward trend points directly to the new provisions in the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA). For our clients here in California, understanding these changes—especially regarding state tax deductions—is key to ensuring you are not leaving money on the table.

The OBBBA Drivers Behind Bigger Checks

This legislation packed in several specific deductions that are moving the needle. Here is what is actively lowering tax bills right now:

Tax forms and money
  • The SALT Cap Relief: This is massive for many of us in California. The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has finally jumped from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately). This significantly helps homeowners and earners in our state, though it does phase down for those with a MAGI over $500,000.

  • Overtime Pay Deduction: If you work hourly and clock overtime, the "half" of your time-and-a-half pay might be deductible now. This is capped at $12,500 for singles and $25,000 for couples.

  • Tax-Free Tips: For service industry workers in designated fields, you can now deduct up to $25,000 of qualified tips annually. Like the overtime deduction, this phases out for higher earners.

  • Auto Loan Interest: Did you buy a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024? You might be able to deduct up to $10,000 of the loan interest. This applies even if you take the standard deduction, provided the loan is secured by the vehicle.

  • Higher Standard Deductions: The standard deduction has surged to $31,500 for married joint filers and $15,750 for singles. Seniors (65+) get an extra "bonus" deduction of $6,000.

  • Child Tax Credit Boost: The credit is now $2,200 per child. However, like many benefits, high-income earners ($400k joint/$200k single) will see this phase out.

Hidden Factors Boosting Refunds

It isn't just new laws putting money back in accounts. There are mechanical reasons refunds are trending higher this year:

  • Withholding Gaps: Because many tax cuts passed mid-year or retroactively, IRS withholding tables didn't update fast enough. That means many of you likely had too much tax taken out of your paychecks in 2025, resulting in a refund now.

  • Inflation Adjustments: Brackets shifted to account for cost-of-living increases, helping prevent "bracket creep" and reducing overall liability.

  • Refundable Adoption Credit: Up to $5,000 of the adoption credit is now refundable, meaning you get the cash even if you owe zero tax.

Navigating IRS Delays and Complexity

We need to be transparent about the processing side. The IRS is currently operating with a reduced workforce—down about 25% since January 2025—and a lingering backlog. Consequently, we are seeing a slight dip in processing speeds compared to previous years.

Financial puzzle

If you haven't filed yet because you are worried about navigating the OBBBA complexity or fearing a delay, take a breath. The team here at Christiansen Accounting is fully up-to-speed on these regulations. We are committed to ensuring every eligible deduction—especially that increased SALT cap—is accurately applied to your return.

Don't guess with your 2025 return. Contact us today to schedule your appointment and ensure your tax strategy is as efficient as possible.

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